Domestic 3.2mm photovoltaic glass prices nearly tripled from the beginning of 2020 to the end of this year, at an all-time high. At present, the glass production capacity in the upper reaches of the industrial chain is facing a shortage, which has seriously affected the production and delivery capacity of photovoltaic modules. In the Chinese-style end-of-year rush, the capacity bottleneck of the glass industry directly affects the normal production of component manufacturing enterprises.
So what is the reason behind the continued rise in the price of photovoltaic glass?
The gap in photovoltaic glass production capacity is caused by a variety of factors: First, the price of photovoltaic glass continued to fall during the outbreak of new crown pneumonia earlier this year, resulting in early cold repair of some photovoltaic glass production lines; The penetration rate of double-glass modules increased significantly caused by the demand for photovoltaic glass exceeded expectations, fourth, the supply chain matching is low, the size of photovoltaic modules is becoming more and more diversified, glass manufacturers need to stock a variety of specifications of glass, these glass between different component plants can not be universal, resource mismatch limits the supply of photovoltaic glass. It can be seen that the current production capacity shortage of photovoltaic glass and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "cement glass industry capacity replacement implementation method operation answer" is not directly related.
What about the flat glass capacity replacement policy?
The source of the capacity replacement policy dates back 11 years. Relevant data show that in 2009 the country completed and put into operation 26 float glass production lines, with a new production capacity of 101.1 million heavy boxes; The growth rate of float glass has obviously exceeded the growth rate of demand side. More seriously, when fashion has more than 40 production lines under construction and proposed, if all of these production lines are completed and put into operation, increased overcapacity will be inevitable. Under the premise of overcapacity, float glass enterprises have low concentration, waste of resources, environmental pollution, production disorder and other conditions are still relatively serious, small scale, poor quality, high energy consumption, pollution of backward flat glass production capacity urgently needs to be eliminated.
Therefore, in order to standardize the investment behavior of flat glass (float glass) industry and prevent blind investment and waste of resources, the State Council promulgated document No. 38 of 2009, which requires that "new projects in industries with serious overcapacity, such as flat glass, need to be implemented after the equivalent phase-out of backward production capacity before construction can begin", after which the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has formulated and issued a series of policies on capacity replacement of flat glass (float glass). Issued a notice on the implementation measures for capacity replacement in some industries with severe overcapacity (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Industry (2015) No. 127), Notice on the Implementation Measures for the Replacement of Capacity in the Steel and Cement Glass Industry (No. 337 of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (2017) and Notice on the Serious Capacity Replacement strictly prohibited new capacity in the cement flat glass industry (ICBC) No. 57). In the 11 years since the work of dissolving excess capacity was carried out, with the efforts of the whole industry, the operation quality of the whole flat glass (float glass) industry has improved significantly, from consecutive years of losses to profit, which has effectively curbed the illegal addition of new capacity, and has also guided the rational flow allocation of resource elements in an orderly manner, promoted technological progress and layout optimization, and the capacity replacement policy has played an important role in promoting the healthy development of float glass industry.
So what is the difference between float glass and photovoltaic glass?
Float glass process for glass liquid floating on the surface of the tin solution forming, float glass is mainly used in the home, construction, automotive field, its application end has been saturated mature, the total growth is slow; From the production line layout, 1000 tons of daily melting amount of float glass kiln is generally a kiln first line or a kiln second line, and 1000 tons of daily melting volume of photovoltaic emulsion glass kiln is generally a kiln five lines, the production of both types of glass is continuous and non-adjustable. In summary, it can be seen that float glass and photovoltaic glass belong to different production processes, different product characteristics, different end customers, different production line layout of the two products.
At this time, do we need policies to guide the healthy development of the photovoltaic glass industry?
The author believes that there is no doubt that it is necessary. According to relevant data, as of the end of September this year, the country's total ultra-white pressurized glass 114 kilns, 245 production lines, production capacity of 32580t/d, of which 48 furnaces in production, 164 production lines, capacity of 28320t/d, capacity utilization rate of 87%. China's photovoltaic glass production capacity accounts for about 90% of the global production capacity, has become the world's largest producer and exporter of photovoltaic glass. Although the future of the photovoltaic industry is broad, but because the pressure-extended photovoltaic glass can only be used as a single use of photovoltaic power generation, if the expansion of capacity is not restricted and completely liberalized, it will reduce the entry threshold of the photovoltaic glass industry, and cause low industrial concentration, waste of resources, environmental pollution, production disorder and other conditions, it is very likely to embark on the traditional glass industry serious surplus of the old road. It has been proved by practice that allowing legal compliance to carry out capacity replacement of new photovoltaic glass projects will contribute to the technological progress and structural adjustment of the industry. However, the policy of not liberalizing photovoltaic glass into capacity replacement limits the development of photovoltaic industry in the long run. According to the PVInfolink Customs Export Report, China's domestic components exported 66.8 GW in 2019, an increase of 60% compared to the cumulative export of 41.3 GW in 2018, and the global PV installation still reached 115GW, showing a steady growth trend compared to 2018. According to the forecast data of the European Photovoltaic Association, by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, it will reach 300GW per year, i.e. an average annual growth rate of 17% between 2020 and 2025.
How to solve the current shortage of photovoltaic glass production capacity, how to lead the next development of the photovoltaic glass industry?
It is imperative that the production capacity of photovoltaic glass be released in an orderly manner. The photovoltaic industry is booming against a backdrop of global commitment to clean energy. Therefore, many photovoltaic glass enterprises and industry experts called for the implementation of photovoltaic glass different from the traditional float glass policy, away from the traditional glass industry's large policy environment. In this way, the new capacity of photovoltaic glass can be fully released in order to keep up with the growing demand for new PV installations in the future. Based on this, the China Architectural Glass and Industrial Glass Association held a symposium on the situation of the photovoltaic glass industry in 2020 in Nanjing on November 22. At the symposium, in the face of the "call" to "let go of the restrictions on the expansion of photovoltaic glass production capacity" proposal, the delegates also reached a consensus: can be put, but can not be completely put, to be put in an orderly manner.
How can the photovoltaic glass industry break the development barrier?
Since you want to release production capacity in an orderly manner, how much do you want to let go? How do you let go? This is still a big problem for the photovoltaic glass industry. Some people in the industry have suggested that for how to orderly release of photovoltaic glass production capacity can be divided into "two steps": the first step is to let go of reasonable and compliant production capacity. First of all, in order to effectively alleviate the current shortage of photovoltaic glass, priority can be given to the release of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on January 3, 2020 before the release of the "cement glass industry capacity replacement implementation measures operating answer" has been filed and has started construction of the production line or before September 30, 2021 can ignite the production line put into operation. If these can not meet the needs of the photovoltaic industry, and then consider the second step, that is, according to the global PV installed capacity forecast and consider the production of silicon, combined with the PV glass production line project filing time, construction gradually release capacity.
Zhang Weiheng, president of China Construction Glass and Industrial Glass Association, believes that "the photovoltaic glass industry can not drag the back of the photovoltaic industry chain." Strengthen the coordination with the component enterprises, so that its smooth operation, can achieve the entire photovoltaic glass industry smooth, sustainable, healthy to high-quality development purposes. "
The author believes that the glass industry can effectively develop in concert: First, photovoltaic glass enterprises in collaboration with photovoltaic module enterprises, according to the capacity gap in the photovoltaic module industry, matching just the right or slightly surplus photovoltaic glass production capacity. Second, photovoltaic glass enterprises in collaboration with photovoltaic module enterprises to improve the photovoltaic glass standards, improve supply chain matching, drive the improvement of production efficiency, and ultimately promote price decline, to solve the urgency of photovoltaic glass. Third, photovoltaic glass enterprises in collaboration with photovoltaic module enterprises technological innovation, and constantly improve the production level of photovoltaic glass enterprises and production technology innovation capabilities, to meet the growing demand for new PV installations in the future.
