Photovoltaic glass expands beyond expectations, and small manufacturers' 3.2mm products basically make zero profits
Bank of China International released a research report stating that it is still pessimistic about the profit outlook for photovoltaic glass companies in the next 18 months. The release of new capacity in the second half of this year will far exceed the capacity that may be withdrawn, and continue to suppress glass prices.
According to the report, capacity expansion will exceed expectations. According to the bank’s latest industry supply and demand model, the new capacity that may be ignited from the third quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year may reach 18,290 tons/day. As a result, the supply of photovoltaic glass may increase by 48%, exceeding the rate of polysilicon supply growth and demand recovery during the same period. Although the old and small production capacity of 4000-4500 tons/day may be forced to withdraw from the market under the current cruel price environment, the new production capacity will greatly reduce the average kiln age of the kilns in production from 2022 to 2023. In this case, even if low prices continue for a long time, it will still be very difficult to clear production capacity.
In addition, demand is limited by polysilicon supply, and there is still a risk of destocking in the third quarter. According to the bank’s latest industry model, the overcapacity of photovoltaic glass compared to polysilicon will continue until at least the third quarter of 2023. In the short term, the bank expects that the photovoltaic industry has accumulated about 25GW of module inventory, and the pressure of destocking in the third quarter may put further pressure on the price of photovoltaic glass.
