The weakness of real estate is the key to the continued weakness of glass in the past year. The weakness of real estate leads to weak demand for glass, and glass factories continue to accumulate warehouses. To solve this contradiction, either the real estate market will recover, or the glass supply will reduce production. At present, the real estate market has not recovered, and the glass industry has not significantly reduced production, and the market is still under pressure.
At present, the real estate market is still weak on the sales side, with real estate sales falling by 23% year-on-year in July. Real estate financing fell by 13.7% year on year, and real estate investment fell by 6.4%. Sales in August did not improve significantly compared with July.
Glass supply side: The actual production capacity is 50.5 million tons/year, down 4.1% from the peak period of 52.7 million tons/year in 2021. However, in the face of a 6.4% decline in real estate investment and a 23% decline in transactions, this reduction is far from enough. Of course, we must also see that there are some possible turning points in the current real estate market. On July 28, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting to deploy the economic work in the second half of the year, and once again emphasized the need to "stabilize the real estate market", "compact the responsibilities of local governments, protect the Hand over the building and stabilize people's livelihood." Under a series of positive rumors in the market, Chinese real estate dollar bonds and real estate stocks rebounded sharply for a time.
We can only pay close attention to the possible real estate improvement in the market in the future. It has not yet become a reality that the current real estate recovery will lead to an improvement in glass demand. There is a high probability that late-stage glass will continue to dip again before the middle of the fourth quarter.
